Florida State vs. Pitt Odds
Florida State started the season just 1-9 but has since won five of nine, with two of those wins coming against Notre Dame. Florida State ended the Fighting Irish’s win of the season Tuesday night with an 84-71 victory. Florida State will try to build on that momentum going into Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.
Pitt was selected to finish 14th in the ACC but finds himself in a four-way tie for second place. The Panthers are 13-6 overall and 6-2 in conference. They come from back-to-back road wins at Georgia Tech and Louisville.
A trio of double-digit scorers lead Florida State. Guard Matthew Cleveland averages 14.4 points per game and is one of the top rebound guards in the country, averaging 8.1 boards per game. He has also shown lightning from deep, shooting 42% on 28 3-point attempts.
The volume 3-point shooter is guard Darin Green, averaging 14.1 points and shooting 40.9% on 7.2 3-point attempts per game. Guard Caleb Mills averages 13.2 points and 3.4 assists per game.
Florida State has averaged 74 points per game in its last nine games — compared to 65.4 points in its first 10 games. The Seminoles are up to 114th in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. Florida State shoots 34.6% from 3 but only 48.1% on 2-point attempts. It ranks 251st in 2-point field goal percentage and 223rd in effective field goal percentage.
Fighting with the glass on both ends of the floor, Florida State ranks 239th in offensive rebound percentage and 296th in defensive rebound percentage. Florida State is overtaken at 2.7 rebounds per game.
Defense has been an issue all season. The Seminoles are ranked 206th in Adjusted Defense Efficiency and 323rd in Defense Rating. They allow 8.4 3s per game and opponents shoot from beyond the arc 36.1%.
The Panthers are solid on both ends, although offense has been a leader this season. Pitt ranks 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and averages 74.6 points per game. The Panthers are led by guards Jamarius Burton and Blake Hinson, the fourth-highest scoring tandem in the ACC.
Burton averages 16.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. He also shoots 53.5% from the field. In the conference, he has increased his scoring average to 19 points per game. Hinson averages 15.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per contest.
Point guard Nelly Cummings averages 10.4 points and has an assist-turnover ratio of over 2/1 — 4.5 assists and 2.1 turnovers per game. Nike Sibande has been sparking off the bench lately. In his last five games, he averaged 12.6 points and shot 50% from 3.
The Panthers shoot 34.3% of 3s and rank third in the ACC with 8.8 3s per game. Hinson and Greg Elliott each have 40 3s this season and Elliott is shooting 39.2% on 5.4 attempts per game.
Pitt keeps his opponents at a 30% shooting rate of 3, which ranks 53rd nationally. It is also 40th in Effective Field Goal Percent Defense and 80th in Adjusted Defense Efficiency.
Pitt ranks only 184th in defensive rebound percentage and allows 11 offensive rebounds per game. However, Pitt still outperforms his opponents by 3.1 rebounds per game. It should have an advantage over Florida State.
Florida State vs Pitt betting tip
Florida State has played nine games against kenpom’s top 100 opponents this season. In those games, it has lost six by double digits and two more by nine. Now the Seminoles are on their way to face off against an up-and-coming Pitt team that ranks Kenpom at No. 58.
Florida State is struggling to defend the 3 and Pitt should be able to take advantage of it. The Panthers have multiple shooters that can spread the ground and engage the FSU from multiple angles. If the Panthers have an off-shoot tag, they should control the glass, especially on the offensive end. Pitt is 9-1 this season as he overtakes his opponent.
The Panthers are 14-4-1 against the spread this season and are posting double-digit straight wins. The Panthers are in a favorable place to regain cover at home, where they are 8-2 against the spread. At -9.5 I will support the Panthers.
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